“We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner.” — Prime Minister Mark Carney
Byline: 3 Narratives News | November 9, 2025
Days after winning the election, and before taking office, Donald Trump sent a tweet from Mar a Lago that shook Ottawa. He threatened a 25% tariff on Canada. The prime minister moved at once. He flew to meet the president elect at Mar a Lago, not the sitting president in Washington. The trip did not change the plan. Trump joked that Canada could solve the problem by becoming the “51st state.” Many in Ottawa read the moment as an omen. Months later, Justin Trudeau left office.
The tariffs arrived in 2025 and spread to metals, autos, and lumber. By August, many goods outside the USMCA faced 35%. In late October, the White House added another 10% after a political ad dispute. Five days ago, the new prime minister, Mark Carney, announced a larger deficit budget to shield families, steady factories, and rebuild confidence in a tariff war imposed on Canada. To some, this feels like a second war. The last one ended with the White House in flames.
Narrative 1: Side A “Leverage and Reciprocity” (Washington’s View)
From the White House, tariffs are a tool, not a tantrum. The view is simple. Canada’s market is tightly linked to America’s, yet U.S. leaders say Ottawa has not matched Washington on border security, drug enforcement, or industrial policy. In this telling, tariffs create pressure for reciprocity. They are meant to reset incentives and bring jobs home. When U.S. steel and auto unions say Canadian inputs undercut domestic capacity, the administration points to the tariff dial and turns it. The Trump lead administration will no longer buy products that compete with the USA.
Officials also rely on a political fact at home. Tariffs sell. A 25% label on imported cars or metals reads like a promise to factories in Ohio and Michigan. Made for TV moments help, like a tough line about fentanyl or a quick jab at a Canadian ad. When Ontario’s ad against tariffs ran during the World Series, the White House framed the new 10% as a direct answer. The message to Ottawa is clear. Substance on border and industrial commitments must match the tone.
Numbers also matter. The United States is still Canada’s largest customer, and many supply chains run through Detroit and Windsor. Tariffs squeeze that belt. If it hurts in the short run, Washington argues, it corrects drift that built up over years. The 2026 review of the North American trade pact is where this leverage could turn into new legal text.
External context: For a primer on the 2026 USMCA review, see the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Reuters for ongoing tariff coverage. CSIS · Reuters
Narrative 2: Side B “Sovereignty Spending” (Ottawa’s View)
Ottawa’s answer is to reduce reliance on a single partner. The plan is to deepen ties in Europe and Asia, and to grow trade among provinces at home. The new federal budget widens the deficit to fund rebates, credit support, and industry programs. These act as guard rails while exporters reprice contracts and households absorb higher costs.
On defence, Canada pledges to reach NATO’s 2% target sooner and to widen procurement. A short list for new submarines pits Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems against South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, with work proposed in Canadian yards. Canada is no longer considering American-made submarines. The fighter jet file continues. Canada stays with its first batch of F-35S while it evaluates longer-term options and industrial partnerships, including interest in Swedish Gripen technologies, to grow domestic aerospace capacity. It’s rumoured to have a Gripen fleet of planes made in Canada by merging technologies.
“Until now, more than 70 cents of every dollar of military capital spending went to the United States.” — Prime Minister Mark Carney
The pitch to Canadian voters is direct. This is sovereignty spending. If U.S. tariffs last through the USMCA review, Canada will fortify, not fold. Build more capacity at home, speed up critical minerals and munitions, and win more orders in Europe and Asia to cut single market risk. Carney’s team says a recession now would weaken Ottawa’s hand later. Stimulus is a bridge to a stronger bargaining position.
Abroad, the tone is steady. Canada is updating Arctic surveillance, munitions lines, and shipyards, not to snub Washington, but to keep alliance promises if supply chains jam. European capitals facing their own procurement worries have taken notice. Analysts also say Canada could deepen selective trade with China, and some in the industry argue for attracting lower cost electric vehicle production to Canadian plants. Ottawa has signalled that all options will be measured against security and supply chain interests.
External context: See the Financial Times on the size of the stimulus and Reuters on budget details and defence pledges. Defence News and Reuters reported the submarine short list. FT · Reuters (Budget) · Defence News
NA Country Rebuilding
History echoes. In 1812, the United States, then an eighteen-state republic, expected British North America to fold. Instead, new alliances formed with Indigenous nations, including the coalition led by Tecumseh, and Canadian militia fought beside British regulars. In 1814, British troops reached Washington, and burned the White House along with some Naval Ships. Sovereignty in the north endured.
Today, Canada builds again. New alliances in Europe and Asia. New supplier lists in factories. Mills retool. Yards prepare for bigger work. Colleges add training modules and apprenticeships fill. Families watch prices, use rebates when they arrive, and keep plans moving. The mood is cautious, but a quiet confidence returns with each order and each shift kept.
The future will decide the scale of this recovery. Stronger than before, or simply steadier. One thing is not in doubt. Canada will not wave a white flag. The friendly people in the north are resilient, and most hope the fight ends soon so the two nations can work in harmony as they should.
Key Takeaways
- Washington presents tariffs as leverage for reciprocity on border, narcotics, and industrial policy. The 2026 USMCA review is the real arena.
- Ottawa’s budget uses deficits to cushion households and to buy time for diversification. Defence spending is set to meet NATO targets sooner.
- Procurement is widening beyond the United States, with a submarine short list that includes Germany and South Korea. The F 35 program continues while the broader mix is reviewed.
- On the ground, auto furloughs, mill curtailments, and higher invoices define the human map of the tariff war.
- The outcome depends on whether stimulus and diversification can outlast tariff pressure without breaking consumer confidence.
Questions This Article Answers
- What tariffs are currently hitting Canada? Metals, autos, and wood products face layered U.S. duties that rose through 2025. In August, items not covered by USMCA faced 35%. In October, the White House added another 10% after a political ad dispute.
- What did Canada do in response? Ottawa imposed 25% counter tariffs in March, then lifted many in late summer while keeping steel, aluminum, and auto measures. The new budget adds support for households and firms.
- When does USMCA return to the table? The six year joint review starts in 2026. It is the likely venue for changes or an extension.
- How does the budget cushion households? Rebates and credit support target energy, food, and borrowing costs. Industry programs aim to steady jobs while firms re source inputs.
- Is Canada shifting defence buys? Submarines are moving ahead with Germany and South Korea on the short list. Fighters remain anchored by the first F 35 tranche while the long term mix is reviewed.
Internal links: For broader geopolitics and technology context, see our Google Christmas Island feature and the Halloween politics culture piece.
External links: Reuters on Canada’s budget · FT on the stimulus scale · CSIS on the USMCA 2026 review
