Trump vs. Venezuela: Is Maduro a Cartel, or Is This American Overreach?

María Corina Machado’s hidden count of ballots rekindled Venezuela’s hope — and gave Washington grounds to call its ruler a criminal instead of a president.

3 Narratives News | October 17, 2025 (Pacific Time)

“But I think Venezuela’s feeling heat.” — President Donald Trump

Intro

They came at dusk with backpacks full of paper — teachers, students, a few retired clerks. Each carried a copy of a polling-station return from the July 28, 2024 election, slips signed, stamped, and verified. By collecting them, María Corina Machado’s volunteers risked prison to prove a simple thing: their candidate, Edmundo González, had won.

Instead, Nicolás Maduro remained in power, seen by some as Venezuela’s legitimate president, by others as its dictator. Washington now looms offshore with a fleet — at times seven to ten U.S. Navy ships, including guided-missile destroyers (such as the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, USS Sampson), an amphibious assault ship (the USS Iwo Jima), and a nuclear-powered submarine. Why this force at Venezuela’s door? No one knows for sure. Until we know, you, the reader, must decide.

Context

The 2024 vote was supposed to end a generation of crisis. Machado was barred from running. She built a successful campaign for Edmundo González Urrutia, a former ambassador with no militia and no patron. Her network collected returns from about 73% of polling stations; shared with observers, they indicated that González had decisively won by millions of votes. Meanwhile, the official count from the National Electoral Council (CNE), a Maduro-aligned agency, announced Maduro 51.9% to González’s 43.1%. Nicolás Maduro claimed victory the same day, sparking nationwide protests, and González went into exile in Spain.

Most foreign governments initially backed Machado and González. Even Brazil’s left-leaning President Lula da Silva called for a recount. Within months, embassies and trade missions returned to Caracas under what diplomats call de facto recognition — a decision to work with a leader known to have won illegitimately, without formally endorsing him. It kept oil routes open and aid corridors intact, but at a cost of moral integrity.

By 2025, more than six million Venezuelans had left their country, the largest refugee flow in the Western Hemisphere since World War II. And yet, Venezuela still holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

Trump’s Turn

On October 15, 2025, President Trump told reporters in Washington he had authorized covert CIA operations inside Venezuela, linked to narcotics trafficking and U.S. national-security threats (Reuters). The State Department simultaneously announced a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest or conviction (State.gov).

Asked: “Does the CIA have authority to take out Maduro?”

“Oh, I don’t want to answer a question like that. That’s a ridiculous question for me to be given. Not really a ridiculous question — but wouldn’t it be a ridiculous question for me to answer?”

“But I think Venezuela’s feeling heat.”

Some observers say it sounded less like policy than precedent. In January 2020, the U.S. ordered a drone strike that killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force, near Baghdad International Airport. Washington cited Article 51 of the U.N. Charter as self-defence. In December 1989, the U.S. invaded Panama, deposed General Noriega, and brought him to U.S. courts on drug-trafficking charges. If Nicolás Maduro remains a sovereign president, striking him would violate international law. If he is treated as a cartel boss — as Washington now often argues — then the Noriega or Soleimani model offers a precedent.

So the question becomes:

Is Maduro a head of state or a criminal?

And what might the fleet of warships, F-35s, and a submarine offshore Venezuela really mean?

Washington’s World: Maduro the Drug Cartel

In Washington’s case file, Nicolás Maduro is not treated as a president but as the leader of a criminal enterprise. In March 2020 the U.S. Justice Department charged Maduro and 14 officials with narco-terrorism, alleging a decades-long scheme with Colombia’s FARC to “flood the United States with cocaine” (Justice Department).

• Bounties. The U.S. State Department offers up to $50 million for information on Maduro, linking him to the Cartel de los Soles (State.gov).
• Sanctions. The U.S. Treasury has designated Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua as a transnational criminal organization, noting ties across regional networks (Treasury).
• Kingpin Act. The Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act enables asset freezes and travel bans on senior Venezuelan actors (Congress.gov).

By 2025 this enforcement posture underpins a broader campaign of military and intelligence operations targeting “narco-terrorist networks” that U.S. officials say threaten American security.

Caracas: The Sovereign Defender

From the Miraflores Palace, Nicolás Maduro speaks in the language of siege and sovereignty. He frames the U.S. bounty and covert operations not as law enforcement but as the rebirth of the Monroe Doctrine. “Imperialism dressed as justice,” he calls it.

On state television, Maduro recites the Bolivarian Revolution’s ledger of progress — public-housing units under Gran Misión Vivienda Venezuela, literacy and health campaigns once praised by UNESCO, fuel and food subsidies, and tuition-free universities. Every shortage, he insists, traces back not to socialism but to sanctions that froze oil revenues abroad, blocked banking ties, and crippled imports.

“Venezuela is not a colony. The Empire will not choose our president.”

He portrays opposition poll-watchers who uploaded tallies as agents of U.S. intelligence. He calls Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize “a medal for treason.”

Diplomatically, Caracas moves deeper into a security bloc with Russia, China, and Iran. Since 2023, the Venezuelan Armed Forces have held joint naval drills with Russian warships in La Guaira, signed cyber-defense pacts with Beijing, and hosted Iranian drone-manufacturing delegations in Maracay. Iranian officials draw parallels between Maduro’s plight and the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, calling both “terrorism in suits.”

In this view, every U.S. ship off the Caribbean coast is not a counternarcotics patrol but a potential invasion force. Ministers echo Bolívar’s warning: “The United States seems destined by Providence to plague America with misery in the name of liberty.” The narrative fuses nationalism, anti-imperial memory, and religious imagery: defending the Bolivarian homeland becomes identical with defending Latin America itself.

The Silent Story: A Country Between Ballots and Drones

Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, yet citizens queue for bread. Refugees cross into Colombia by the hour; children learn airports more than playgrounds.

Machado now lives in partial hiding, thin, weary, but unbroken. Her team is scattered — some in exile, some jailed or dead. They still believe the tally-sheets prove the nation was stolen. She says, “The truth travels on paper when the internet is blocked.”

Over Caracas, unmarked aircraft circle at night. People look up and wonder what they mean. If Maduro is president, no strike will come. If he is a criminal, international law permits one. That difference — the thin edge between justice and history — hovers above every rooftop.

Key Takeaways

• 2024 election: Opposition tallies suggest González won; the official count gave victory to Maduro.
• De facto recognition: Several countries operate with Maduro despite contested legitimacy.
• U.S. policy: Trump authorized covert operations, offered a $50 million bounty, and sidestepped direct strike confirmation.
• Legal line: International law forbids assassinating a sovereign leader; it may allow targeting a criminal actor.
• Human cost: Over six million Venezuelans have left despite the country’s vast oil wealth.

Questions This Article Answers

1. What happened during Venezuela’s 2024 election, and why is it contested?
2. What does “de facto recognition” mean in international law?
3. What authority has Trump granted for U.S. operations in Venezuela?
4. How does the Soleimani precedent shape the current debate?
5. What is life like for Venezuelans caught between politics and power?