“We must use everything we have—together—to force the aggressor to stop,”
President Volodymyr Zelensky told the United Nations this week. “Otherwise, Putin will keep driving the war forward—wider and deeper.”
The warning came as Russian bombers skirted Alaska, drones strayed into European airspace, and NATO debated how to respond. Only weeks ago, Vladimir Putin had been welcomed with a red carpet at the Alaska Summit, where Donald Trump hinted at a thaw and even a pathway back to the G8. Yet days later, Putin appeared beside Xi Jinping in Beijing, parading through a World War II commemoration—a public showcase of defiance.
The theatre is no longer ceremonial. It is unfolding in the skies.
Context
On September 24, NORAD reported intercepting two Tu-95 bombers and two Su-35 fighters in the Alaskan Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). U.S. F-16s, KC-135 tankers, and an E-3 early warning aircraft tracked them. It was the third such approach in a month, the ninth this year. NORAD stressed the planes stayed in international airspace but warned that ADIZ probes are monitored closely.
Across the Atlantic, Europe has faced its own incursions. Poland shot down a drone it said had strayed from Russian strikes in Ukraine. Danish airports endured repeated drone disruptions, grounding flights. NATO accused Russian MiG-31s of briefly entering Estonian airspace, prompting private warnings from European officials that intruding jets could be shot down if breaches continue. The Kremlin dismissed those warnings as “very irresponsible” and denied any violation.
Such incidents are not new. But the timing—amid war fatigue, Trump’s overtures, and Beijing’s embrace of Moscow—has magnified their impact.
Russia’s Perspective — Routine Flights, Western Provocations
From Moscow’s viewpoint, there is no crisis—only routine. The Ministry of Defence insists flights over neutral waters are scheduled drills, not violations. An ADIZ, they stress, is not sovereign airspace.
Kremlin officials describe Western alarm as a performative justification for swelling defence budgets and arms deliveries to Ukraine. Drone allegations?
“Unproven hysteria.”
Estonia’s complaint? A fabrication. NATO’s threats to shoot down jets? “Dangerously irresponsible.”
Russia argues the real aggression comes from the West: sanctions, weapons, and intelligence support. Patrols, in this telling, are legal and necessary—assertions of global reach and signals that Western dominance is fading.
NATO, Europe, and Ukraine — Boundary Tests and Escalation Risks
Inside NATO, unity is fraying. Everyone sees Russian incursions as deliberate probes—but not everyone agrees on what to do.
Poland and the Baltic states argue for rules of engagement that allow shootdowns. Estonia’s foreign minister called the recent MiG incursion “unprecedentedly brazen,” noting the jets lingered twelve minutes over the Gulf of Finland. Their position: hesitation invites escalation.
Germany, by contrast, urges restraint. Leaders in Berlin warn against a repeat of 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian jet and triggered a spiral that NATO scrambled to contain. The debate reflects deeper splits: some members want to harden deterrence, while others fear that a single misstep could trigger open conflict.
The U.S. position hasn’t helped. Trump first downplayed the Alaska and Estonia incidents as “maybe nothing” and “could be big trouble.” Days later, after he met with Zelensky, he swung to endorsing shootdowns. Allies read it as chaos; Moscow read it as opportunity.
Russia, for its part, warns that “shoot one down, and it’s war,” in the words of its envoy in Paris. The Kremlin also claims the Estonia flyby was “payback” for Ukrainian strikes in Crimea—strikes they say NATO orchestrated behind the scenes.
This feedback loop—accusations, threats, counter-threats—is exactly what NATO strategists fear: a miscalculation that turns a slow-burning test into a shooting war.
At the UN, Zelensky was blunt:
“Modern warfare is at our doorsteps. If we do not stop Russia here, it will spread.”
The Silent Story — Accidental War and Civilian Risk
Beneath the rhetoric lies a fragile geometry of air safety. Each intercept risks miscalculation: a scrambled jet, a faulty transponder, a drone veering near a passenger flight.
Civilians—pilots, passengers, coastal communities—carry the hidden risk. Drone disruptions at European airports show how unmanned systems blur responsibility. Was it Moscow, a proxy, or a glitch? Attribution lags, but flights are grounded, supply chains are stalled, patients wait for medicine.
The UN has little leverage. The Security Council is paralyzed by Russia’s veto. The General Assembly can issue only symbolic resolutions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) might set standards on drone incursions or create incident protocols—but action there is slow.
The silence is not only institutional. It is philosophical. What does deterrence mean in an age of drones and gray zones? Can international law keep pace with probes designed to skirt its definitions?
Key Takeaways
- Alaska Summit: Trump welcomed Putin with open arms, hinting at rapprochement. Weeks later, Putin stood with Xi in Beijing, signaling defiance of the West.
- Incursions rising: NORAD intercepted Russian bombers and fighters in Alaska; NATO accused Moscow of drone and jet breaches in Europe.
- Russia’s stance: Routine flights, false hysteria, Western provocation.
- NATO/Ukraine stance: Probes and escalation risks, calls for deterrence.
- Silent story: Risks of accidents, civilian disruption, and the absence of enforceable UN mechanisms.
Questions This Article Answers
- Why is Russia flying bombers near Alaska and drones over Europe?
- How does Moscow explain its actions?
- How are NATO and the EU responding to these incursions?
- What role can the UN play in addressing airspace violations?
- What risks are civilians facing amid these aerial tests?
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Thanks for sharing this piece from 3 Narratives—it’s a sharp, timely dive into a story that’s indeed flying under the radar amid the endless Ukraine headlines, but it absolutely deserves more spotlight. As someone who’s all about cutting through the noise to spot the real signals, I appreciate how the article frames Russia’s recent airspace pokes (those Tu-95s off Alaska, MiG-31s over Estonia, and drone swarms into Poland and Romania) not as isolated oopsies, but as a calculated gray-zone game. It’s like the Cold War’s cat-and-mouse in the skies, but with drones adding a layer of plausible deniability that makes escalation feel even more slippery. Let me unpack my thoughts on it, building on what you’ve highlighted.First off, the core question—routine patrols or act of war?—nails the ambiguity that’s keeping everyone on edge. The article does a solid job laying out Russia’s line: “We’re just flexing over international waters, you hysterics.” But then it flips to NATO’s view, with those NORAD stats (nine Alaskan ADIZ probes this year alone, three in the last month
) painting a picture of deliberate probing. I couldn’t agree more that this isn’t random; it’s straight out of the hybrid warfare playbook—test response times, sow doubt in the alliance, and maybe even distract from the grinding stalemate in Donbas. Zelensky’s UN quote about “modern warfare at our doorsteps”
lands like a gut punch, especially with the civilian ripple effects: grounded flights in Denmark, stalled supply chains, and that ever-present risk of a mid-air fender-bender turning hot.What really resonates with me is the piece’s emphasis on the human cost in the shadows—the families grounded at airports, the pilots scrambling in the dead of night, and the attribution headaches with drones that could be “accidental” (Russia’s word) or jammed off-course by Ukrainian EW (as some intel whispers suggest
). It’s a reminder that these aren’t just radar blips; they’re eroding the invisible barriers that keep the peace. And tying it to bigger moves, like Putin’s Beijing bromance or the Alaska Summit vibes, adds that geopolitical spice—Russia signaling to the West (and maybe Xi) that it’s not cornered yet.