“The only certain economic prediction is more uncertainty.”
President Trump’s return to the White House a few months ago has been marked by a dizzying escalation of tariffs. What began as a 25 percent levy on steel and aluminum imports has now doubled to 50 percent—effective June 4, 2025—upending supply chains and prompting Canada to slap a 25 percent surcharge on nearly all U.S. goods (10 percent on energy) in retaliation reuters.comen.wikipedia.org. Mexico soon followed suit, threatening similar measures on U.S. exports en.wikipedia.orgosler.com. In this mid-cycle of an international trade war, traders on the NYSE and TSX, along with crypto aficionados, find themselves chasing every rumor—Will the next tariff be 35 percent? 75 percent? 135 percent?—while the rest of us are left wondering if a crystal ball might offer more reliable guidance than any economist’s forecast reuters.comnypost.com.
Narrative One: The Pessimist’s Crystal Ball
Eleanor wakes up before dawn in New York, eyes glued to her tablet as she scrolls through Bloomberg headlines blaring “Tariff Tsunami” and “Global Growth Grinds to a Halt.” Each morning, she reads that a 25 percent steel tariff was already devastating automakers—then learns it’s now 50 percent, jolting share prices of U.S. steel and aluminum producers in opposite directions reuters.comreuters.com. She recalls John Maynard Keynes’s quip—“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”—and wonders how anyone can form a conclusion at all when policy swings faster than a Wall Street ticker tradingeconomics.comapnews.com.
By mid-May 2025, Eurozone inflation cooled to 1.9 percent, well below the ECB’s 2 percent target, in no small part because energy prices fell and Europe braces for fallout from U.S. tariffs apnews.comenglish.news.cn. Yet Eleanor distrusts these numbers: “If they can predict Euro inflation today, why can’t they predict steel prices tomorrow?” she mutters, pouring a stale cup of coffee. Every night, she opens a fun “crystal ball” site—she insists it’s for comic relief—but secretly believes it’s as credible as the latest op-ed arguing that 50 percent steel tariffs will either revive U.S. factories or plunge small manufacturers into ruin. To her, the only safe harbor is to stash cash under her mattress, which, at least, won’t be re-priced by an algorithm at 3 a.m. reuters.comapnews.com.
Narrative Two: The Opportunist’s Playbook
Across the river in New Jersey, Marcus, a corporate lawyer with a taste for risk, sees a buffet of opportunities. He nods knowingly at Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s mantra: “Antifragile things benefit from disorder.” Indeed, when Alcoa’s shares dipped 1 percent on news that U.S. aluminum imports would face a doubled tariff—despite producing 75 percent of its high-purity aluminum from Canadian facilities—he pounced, adding more to his long position in Century Aluminum, whose U.S. smelters stand to thrive under 50 percent protection wsj.comreuters.com.
Meanwhile, German automakers reeled as Trump threatened a 20 percent tariff on all EU goods (later paused pending July negotiations), contributing to eurozone growth forecasts sinking from 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent for 2025 apnews.comtaxfoundation.org. Marcus shorted Volkswagen and Daimler, convinced that those companies—heavily reliant on U.S. exports—would be collateral damage. In Canada, where Ottawa retaliated with 25 percent duties on $30 billion of U.S. goods, he scooped up beaten-down TSX mining stocks, betting that any eventual rollback would spark a rebound en.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org.
He’s even drafted a tongue-in-cheek memo—“Five Ways to Profit from a 135 Percent Tariff”—and distributes it at dinner parties, extolling absurd plays like printing “Made in the U.S.A.” labels on T-shirts, hoarding Canadian blueberries (exempt from energy levies), and fusing a steel mill with a microbrewery to sell “Tariff Ale.” His friends chuckle—but then ask, “Seriously, how do we hedge our portfolios?” And Marcus smiles, because in this new trade-war era, plenty of people are willing to pay for guidance, even if it’s drawn from a parody of global finance.
Conclusion: Embracing Uncertainty
Where does the world economy go from here? The short answer: no one knows. The pre-Trump baseline—steady globalization, predictable tariffs, and multilateral pacts—has shattered. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the post-war rules-based trade system has been “blown up” by these unilateral measures, prompting the OECD to trim global growth forecasts to 2.9 percent for 2025 and 2026 theguardian.comeconomy-finance.ec.europa.eu.
Leah, a car dealer in Cleveland, sums it up best: “If my factory manager can’t forecast next quarter’s steel costs, why should I trust any forecast at all?” So we watch, we wait, and we adapt. Some hide their cash under mattresses, others reload their portfolios with stocks that thrive on chaos, and a few purchase crystal balls—because in this farcical era, the unpredictability itself has become the only punch line that matters.
Sources
- turn0search0: “Trump says he plans to double steel, aluminum tariffs to 50%” — Reuters, May 30, 2025.
- turn0search5: “U.S. Announces 25% Tariffs on All Steel and Aluminum Imports; Updated to 50% Tariff” — RV Industry Association, May 31, 2025.
- turn1search0: “List of products from the United States subject to 25 per cent tariffs, effective March 13, 2025” — Government of Canada, March 13, 2025.
- turn1search1: “Canada announces new countermeasures in response to tariffs from United States” — Prime Minister of Canada News Release, April 3, 2025.
- turn2search1: “Mexico vows retaliation to Trump tariffs without detailing targets” — Reuters, February 2, 2025.
- turn2search2: “2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico” — Wikipedia (accessed June 3, 2025).
- turn0news9: “The reality of Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs” — Reuters, June 2, 2025.
- turn3news11: “Inflation slides to 1.9% in Europe, as worries shift from prices to Trump and tariffs” — AP News, June 3, 2025.
- turn0news9: “The reality of Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs” — Reuters, June 2, 2025.
- turn0news10: “Steel stocks leap after Trump vows to double tariffs to 50%, make Pittsburgh ‘the Steel City again’” — New York Post, June 2, 2025.
- turn3news11: “Inflation slides to 1.9% in Europe, as worries shift from prices to Trump and tariffs” — AP News, June 3, 2025.
- turn1search0: “List of products from the United States subject to 25 per cent tariffs, effective March 13, 2025” — Government of Canada, March 13, 2025.
- turn1search1: “Canada announces new countermeasures in response to tariffs from United States” — Prime Minister of Canada News Release, April 3, 2025.
- turn3news10: “Bank of England governor warns Trump tariffs have ‘blown up’ global trade system – as it happened” — The Guardian (live blog), June 3, 2025.
- turn4news10: “OECD lowers global outlook as Trump trade war hits US growth” — Reuters, June 3, 2025.
