As sanctions loom and diplomacy intensifies, what are Putin’s options — and who’s listening?
By 3 Narratives News | August 8, 2025
Intro
“It’s going to be up to him,” President Trump said this morning, conceding that Vladimir Putin now holds the next move — as his much-publicized ceasefire deadline passes without agreement.
The moment marks a turning point in U.S.–Russia relations. Trump has been unusually patient, giving Moscow weeks to respond, avoiding specific ultimatums, and couching his threats in broad terms. Yet, despite this restraint, Putin remains unmoved.
Context
Today was the expiration date for President Trump’s offer: agree to a Ukraine ceasefire or face secondary sanctions that would hit not just Russia, but also its top oil customers — especially India and China.
The stakes are high. These measures could redraw the energy map, strain relations with U.S. allies, and deepen the fractures already shaping the postwar order. The deadline’s lapse now forces a question: Is Trump ready to push sanctions into motion, or is there another play behind the scenes?
Narrative 1: Trump’s Ultimatum — Patience Under Pressure
From the start, Trump framed his ceasefire push as an act of “practical diplomacy” rather than a hardline squeeze. He dispatched real estate magnate and envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow, later describing Witkoff’s meetings with Putin as “highly productive.”
The White House had initially floated a trilateral summit involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Still, Trump has since signalled willingness to meet Putin one-on-one — a pivot that has stirred controversy in Kyiv and Brussels.
Trump’s leverage is his economic arsenal. He has threatened tariffs and secondary sanctions that could punish not only Russia, but also its partners. Analysts warn this could test U.S. relations with India and potentially push Beijing into firmer alignment with Moscow.
Narrative 2: Putin’s Calculated Resilience
Inside the Kremlin, the deadline has been met with skepticism, even defiance. Russian officials dismiss the threat as “manageable” and see little reason to alter their war trajectory.
Putin appears convinced that his battlefield objectives in eastern Ukraine are within reach. This week, Russian forces intensified drone and artillery strikes on Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, while Russian markets — counterintuitively — rallied on the prospect of high-level U.S.–Russia talks.
Behind the scenes, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has acted as an informal go-between, helping set the stage for a potential Trump–Putin meeting in the UAE. The move fuels speculation of a “deep freeze” settlement — halting large-scale fighting but locking in Russia’s territorial gains.
Narrative 3: The Silent Story — Ukraine’s Uneasy Place in the Room
In Ukraine, there is little optimism. Soldiers on the front lines say they have heard too many “peace plans” that translate into stalemates favouring Moscow. Civilians endure another wave of strikes, with some regions seeing the heaviest bombardment in months.
Zelenskyy insists Ukraine must be at the table for any talks — but the possibility of a summit without him has stirred fears that the U.S. might prioritize ending the fighting over reversing Russian occupation.
For many Ukrainians, the danger is not just in what Russia gains, but in what the West might concede to secure an agreement.
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s ceasefire deadline expired today with no agreement from Moscow.
- The U.S. is now weighing secondary sanctions targeting Russia’s oil customers.
- Putin appears unfazed, pressing forward with military operations in Ukraine.
- A Trump–Putin summit is in the works, possibly in the UAE, with Zelenskyy’s participation uncertain.
- Ukraine and its allies warn against deals that freeze — rather than end — the war.
Questions This Article Answers
- What happens now that Trump’s ceasefire deadline for Russia has expired?
- How is Putin responding to U.S. sanctions threats?
- Could the Trump–Putin summit exclude Ukraine?
- What impact would secondary sanctions have on India, China, and global oil markets?
- Is this the beginning of a shift in the Trump–Putin relationship?
