Seven Warships and a Nuclear Submarine off Venezuela: Pressure, Posturing, or War?

By: Carlos Taylhardat – 3 Narratives News | August 30, 2025

Intro:
The Caribbean horizon has shifted. Offshore, the silhouettes of seven U.S. warships and a nuclear-powered submarine now hover like punctuation marks in a sentence yet to be written. Onshore, Nicolás Maduro rallies new conscripts with a defiant cry: “Today we are stronger than yesterday, and more prepared to defend our peace and the sovereignty of Venezuela”.

The timing is no coincidence. The United States has raised its bounty on Maduro from million to million, accusing him of running a drug cartel that funnels cocaine laced with fentanyl into American streets. As Attorney General Pam Bondi put it: “Maduro will not escape justice. He is poisoning Americans, and he will be held accountable.”.

So why does Venezuela matter so much, and what are the United States’ true intentions? To answer that, we examine history, geopolitics, and four theories, two of which seem alarmingly close to reality.

—

Why Venezuela Matters

Once called the “Saudi Arabia of Latin America,” Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world—larger even than Saudi Arabia’s. But decades of mismanagement and corruption have gutted its capacity. PDVSA, once a giant in the industry, now limps along under sanctions. Oil still flows to China, Iran, and shadow traders, but it is contraband, a trickle compared to the gush it could be.

For Washington strategists, this is not only about drugs or oil. Venezuela sits just beyond the shadow of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a reminder of how quickly Latin America can become a launchpad for confrontation. A Russian, Chinese, or Iranian-backed Caracas is an intolerable prospect: nuclear-capable systems “one block further south than Cuba.”

—

Theories for the Warships on Venezuela’s Coast

(1) An Invasion

The most dramatic scenario, and the least likely. Trump’s MAGA doctrine shuns “forever wars.” A landing in Venezuela would pit Marines against entrenched militias, Cuban-trained intelligence officers, and the spectre of Russian or Iranian involvement. “Going in would turn Caracas into another Kyiv,” one European diplomat warned. For all the steel offshore, occupation is not the plan.

(2) Negotiation by Force

Another possibility, but improbable. Washington has already declared Maduro illegitimate. As former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo once said: “Negotiating with Maduro is like negotiating with the mafia, you don’t reform, you remove.”. The warships are not a bargaining chip. They are a force of change.

(3) A Decapitation Strike

Whispers inevitably circle back to the Soleimani model*. In 2020, the U.S. killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani outside Baghdad Airport with a MQ-9 Reaper drone and Hellfire missiles, aided by Israeli intelligence. Could the same be done to Maduro and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López?

Technically, yes. Amphibious assault ships carry AH-1Z attack helicopters capable of Hellfires. Destroyers and submarines provide long-range precision strike. “If we can do Baghdad, we can do Caracas,” one retired CIA officer told ABC News after Soleimani’s death.

But legally, it’s another universe. Executive Order 12333, bans assassination. The Soleimani strike was justified as self-defence under Article 51; targeting a sitting head of state is harder to square.  “You don’t assassinate presidents,” a former State Department lawyer told The New York Times. “You destabilize them.”… But then, the administration does not recognize him as the elected president of Venezuela but rather as a narco trafficker hurting hundreds of thousands of Americans.

(4) Managed Transfer of Power (Most Likely)

Which leads us here: the most plausible path is not cruise missiles but a negotiated crack inside the regime.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado has already shown her hand. Barred from running herself, she backed candidates who were disqualified, until her third attempt, when she supported the man now recognized internationally as Venezuela’s “president in exile.” In a recent interview with El País, she disclosed that her team secured about 80% of official tallies before authorities realized. Those numbers, she insists, show Maduro lost decisively: “The military votes were overwhelmingly in our favour.”, mentions Maria Corina Machado in a YouTube interview.

That’s why the warships matter. Not to storm the beaches, but to whisper into the barracks. If generals believe the U.S. will stand behind a transition, they may choose democracy and the Venezuelan constitution ahead of Maduro’s regime. The “Soleimani option” hangs in the air, but the  Machado option is a shift inside the armed forces, more likely, more legal, and more sustainable.

—

Who Stands Behind Maduro?

– Russia: Sergey Lavrov:  “We will not allow Venezuela to be strangled.”
– China: Quiet investments, like a $1B oil project through China Concord Resources, ensure Beijing’s hand.
– Cuba: Security and intelligence cadres remain embedded. *“Havana is Maduro’s second army,”* as one Miami analyst put it.
– Iran: Supplies drones and fuel. A 2025 report by Reuters confirms Venezuelan forces now train with Iranian-designed UAVs.

Meanwhile, neighbouring Colombia has reinforced its border—not in support of Maduro, but to prevent spillover. President Gustavo Petro: *“We do not want another Ukraine in our neighbourhood.”*

—

Conclusion

The Caribbean is restless. Warships drift offshore. A submarine lurks unseen. Maduro thunders to his troops. The U.S. bounty has grown to $50 million.

But history suggests this is less about invasion or assassination than about leverage. In 1989, the U.S. captured Panama’s General Noriega not by levelling Panama City, but by pressuring the system until loyalty cracked. The same playbook may now be in motion in Caracas.

The question is not whether Washington can remove Maduro. It is whether Venezuelans—military and civilian alike—are ready to believe that change is possible, and safe. The silent euphoria grows.

—

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. has deployed seven warships and a nuclear submarine to Venezuela’s coast.
• Maduro’s bounty was raised to $50 million, framed as a fentanyl crisis issue.
• Venezuela’s oil reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia’s but are mismanaged and politicized.
• Theories range from invasion to decapitation—but a military-led transfer of power is the most plausible scenario.
• Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran provide lifelines, while Colombia braces against spillover.

Questions This Article Answers

1. Why is Venezuela strategically important to the United States?
2. What are the U.S. Navy’s capabilities off Venezuela’s coast?
3. Could the U.S. attempt a Soleimani-style strike against Maduro?
4. Why is a military-led transfer of power the most likely outcome?
5. Who supports Maduro internationally, and how?

“France faces its own democratic tension, as seen in Bayrou’s Bold Plea: Sacrifice for France or Political Suicide?, where national sacrifice was demanded but rejected.”