In the rugged Rockies of Kananaskis, Alberta, the Group of Seven’s leaders meet amid a volatile mix of wars and trade wars. Analysts note this could be “one of the most consequential G7 summits in history,” with a new “trade war between G7 members” threatening the club’s cohesion. Host Canada says its priorities are “strengthening peace and security, building critical mineral supply chains and creating jobs,” but acknowledges U.S. tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine will dominate discussions. With invited heads of India, Brazil, South Africa and others attending as guest states, there is also pressure to address global concerns, though some observers warn the summit’s North‑centric agenda may sideline developing-country issues. EU officials call for unity: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urges a “frank discussion” to “restore a sense of stability and predictability” among G7 allies. But looming over every session is the spectre of U.S. President Donald Trump. Friends and critics alike have spent weeks jockeying for Trump’s ear, hoping to persuade the mercurial leader to ease off new tariffs and stay committed to joint action.
Let’s contemplate the narratives and diverse goals for each member country.
Canada (Host)
As summit host, Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to steer the meeting away from chaos. Carney has warned that “no real blow-ups” – especially with President Trump – would be the best outcome. Ottawa has already abandoned the usual joint communiqué, opting instead for bilateral notes to avoid a public fracture with Washington. Carney publicly emphasizes middle-power issues: diversifying supply chains, aiding Ukraine and promoting innovation. But he has made no secret that the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs hurt Canada deeply. On the eve of the summit, his government “threatened reprisals” unless Washington lifted those tariffs. Officials say Carney wants to focus on concrete joint actions – for example, on critical minerals – rather than rhetoric.
Canada’s strategy on trade is to seek relief from Trump while shoring up other markets. Carney quietly aims to deepen ties within the Indo-Pacific trade frameworks (like CPTPP) and lean on allies if U.S. talks stall. In practice, he will spend extra time in bilateral meetings with Trump to negotiate at the margins. Many foreign‑policy experts say Ottawa’s bigger hope is that other G7 powers will collectively pressure Trump to moderate his tariff blitz. One scholar remarks that after years of tension with Trump, Canada’s approach is “to remain calm… and not be baited”.
On the Trump factor, Canada is in a delicate dance. Having survived the 2018 summit blow‑up with Trump, Carney now must manage a president once again who has publicly mused about annexing Canada. Analysts say Ottawa is preparing for any outcome by reinforcing partnerships with the EU and other democracies – and by quietly hedging via trade deals outside North America. As one Atlantic Council expert warns, success for Canada will simply be “no real blow-ups coming out of the back end”.
France
France enters the summit under President Emmanuel Macron with a dual agenda: to defend the liberal international order and to protect European interests in trade. Macron has spent years cultivating a personal rapport with Trump – even “love-bombing” him with invitations and compliments – and he again tried personal diplomacy by stopping in Greenland to warn Trump off any real estate ambitions. But Paris is also working closely with EU partners: it supports stringent new Russia sanctions and a lower Russian oil-price cap to pressure Putin, aligning with EU Commission calls for a $45 cap on oil.
On trade, France is wary of President Trump’s tariff threats. Macron knows European and Japanese cars are squarely in Trump’s crosshairs. Within Europe, France has signalled willingness to discuss a deal (even cutting EU tariffs on U.S. cars) in exchange for Trump scaling back his levies. Yet behind closed doors, France’s finance minister joined other G7 European officials in expressing “unanimous concern and disappointment” about U.S. tariffs. Paris will push for a balanced outcome: opposing unilateral tariffs while also insisting that rich democracies work together to contain China’s “subsidy-fueled overcapacity”.
France has quietly strengthened ties with like-minded allies. Macron has reiterated that the EU must not appear to “prejudice” its interests to stay on Trump’s good side. French strategists will watch whether Trump keeps America in multilateral groupings like the G7. The best-case scenario for Paris would be firm commitments on Ukraine and climate, delivered in writing by allies – even if Trump himself erupts. The Atlantic Council notes that, in such a clash of agendas, Macron hopes to ensure he can “steer this group through another year of tariffs and war”.
Germany
Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives with a clear security focus, but also economic concerns. Merz has repeatedly said the top agenda items are conflict-related: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear arms and supporting Israel’s right to self-defence. But trade issues loom large at home. Before leaving, Germany’s Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil publicly urged “serious negotiations” with the U.S. to defuse its tariff threats. Klingbeil warned that Trump’s higher levies “endanger the American economy at least as much as the German and European economies”. German officials push for a united EU front: the government has already told Washington that tariffs could backfire on all sides. Chancellor Merz will likely press the point in caucus, backing calls for an orderly solution to the trade standoff, rather than tit‑for‑tat hikes.
On the broader stage, Germany is working with France and others to maintain sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine. A senior German official says the summit is “a matter of seeing how far it is possible to achieve parallel movement” on new U.S. and EU sanctions packages. Germany has urged realism: EU leaders hope the U.S. will at least maintain current military aid (“very important services”) to Ukraine. Any tangible next steps on Ukraine aid at the G7 depend on Trump’s goodwill, a fragile proposition.
If Trump returns, Berlin is nervous but pragmatic. Having suffered U.S. battery plant investments at risk under Trump 1.0, Germany is quietly advancing ties with other markets (like China and India) as insurance. Nevertheless, German officials stress they remain committed to the transatlantic alliance – but expect to negotiate firmly. At home, Klingbeil summed it up bluntly: “This trade conflict is damaging everyone and must be ended quickly,” and Europe will stand united to defend its interests.
Italy
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni comes into the summit as a self‑styled “bridge” between the U.S. and Europe. Meloni is ideologically closer to Trump than other European leaders, having met with him in Washington to pledge a shared pursuit of “western nationalism”. But she also supports aid for Ukraine, and in recent weeks hosted leaders from both Vice President Vance and EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen in Rome. Rome’s strategy at Kananaskis is to keep lines open with Washington while pushing practical outcomes on war and trade.
On trade and tariffs, Italy faces the same squeeze as its EU partners: U.S. duties on Italian cars and goods could rise to 20% under Trump’s timeline. Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has said a G7 communique is “crucial” to signal unity, even if it means watering down language. Italy also supports Europe’s tougher line on Russia: Giorgetti is championing a proposal to bar any country that did business with Russia’s war effort from Ukraine’s reconstruction funds. This reflects Italy’s broader belief in “responsible” rebuilding. Analysts note that Meloni may try to leverage her rapport with Trump to keep U.S. support for Ukraine alive, an area where Italy, one of the EU’s bigger militaries, has a vested interest.
Italy will try to walk a fine line. In Brussels, Meloni often sided with Hungary and China-friendly parties, but at the G7, she will emphasize Italy’s commitments to NATO and WTO rules. Domestically, she will tout her U.S. ties: a senior Italian MEP says Meloni is “politically close to Trump,” and she has warned other EU leaders not to alienate the U.S. out of prejudice. Rome’s underlying aim is to ensure Italy has access to American markets and investments even if tariffs spike, possibly by offering regulatory openings or joint industrial projects. In short, Italy wants to play Trump’s confidante to keep Washington engaged, while telling Brussels it still values the G7 and broader multilateral frameworks.
Japan
Japan’s delegation, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has one overriding economic goal: get the U.S. to lift its 25% tariff on Japanese cars (and the planned 24% “reciprocal” tariff). Japan’s auto industry – a pillar of its economy – would face a serious hit (tariffs could eventually shave 0.9% off GDP). Accordingly, Ishiba has spent the past week in intensive talks: he met Treasury Secretary Bessent before the summit and is expected to sit down again with Trump on the G7 sidelines. He has publicly vowed to strike “an agreement that benefits both Japan and the United States,” but analysts warn Ishiba must avoid concession deals that look bad at home.
Beyond autos, Japan’s strategy focuses on stability in Asia. Tokyo supports a firm G7 stance on China’s industrial overcapacity and has joined the U.S.-led effort to pressure Beijing on technology transfer. At Banff, Japan’s trade minister noted that all G7 leaders (except Canada and the UK) risked higher U.S. tariffs soon, underscoring that Japan is not alone. Japan is also coordinating with other Asian invitees (like South Korea and India) to bolster Indo-Pacific security ties, offering a counterpoint to unpredictability in Washington.
United Kingdom
For Britain, this summit is a debut – Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first overseas appearance since taking office. The UK has already negotiated a partial trade deal with the Trump administration (capping most U.S. tariffs at 10%, but Starmer is still seeking deeper access. In recent days, he met Carney in Ottawa to “focus on security and trade,” indicating London’s intent to reassure its ally. Starmer’s government is ready to highlight alignment with the U.S. on issues like Ukraine and Israel, hoping this will earn goodwill on tariffs. Indeed, Starmer’s aides celebrated reports that Trump’s praise of the U.K. was fading too, and extended the “temporary tariff relief” timeline on British steel and cars by a week.
The UK is particularly attentive to the Trump factor. Starmer has been in open admiration of Trump’s “deal-making” style (notably touching Trump’s arm repeatedly in the Oval Office), and he lauds their emerging rapport. Downing Street will keep emphasizing personal chemistry in public to gain leverage if Trump stays in power. But officials are also impatient: one told Reuters that while they don’t expect new announcements at G7, Britain has already made “substantial progress” with the U.S. on trade, and “real-world dividends have proved harder to find”. In private, London is bracing for the worst: Scottish whisky and car-makers worry that Trump could kill any hope of a full US-UK free trade deal. To prepare, Britain is stepping up trade diplomacy with the EU, Australia, and emerging markets as Plan B.
United STATES
US. policy under President Trump dominates the table. White House officials arrived unapologetically first, intent on setting the summit agenda. The U.S. Treasury has signalled it will not sign any communique unless it aligns with its priorities. Expect no new bilateral deals announced here; instead, the Americans want the G7 to join them in a campaign against “unfair” Chinese subsidies and global imbalances. Treasury Secretary Bessent (Janet Yellen’s successor) will press the other leaders to protect workers and firms from state-driven competition out of Beijing. In exchange, Trump claims he has already reset many global trade ties, and he says he won’t hesitate to send letters demanding more payback from allies.
Behind this posture is a stark calculation: the U.S. will re-emphasize “America First” economics. The sources say Trump has implicitly given allies 90 days (until early July) to strike deals or face even higher tariffs. Already in May, he threatened to increase EU auto duties from 10% to 50% if a deal isn’t made. So, at Kananaskis, the U.S. focus will be on chewing over Chinese practices – but with one eye out for whether the others will jump or try to appease.
In private briefings, the U.S. insists it still needs the G7 framework to coordinate on Ukraine and other security issues. Yet U.S. officials openly admit that a surviving Trump presence is the “big test” of the summit’s value. As one U.S. source put it: better no communiqué than one with language the White House dislikes. The message is clear: America will only endorse multilateral words or deeds that leave Washington firmly ahead.
Sources: Reporting is based on official statements, leaked summit briefings and analysis from Reuters and other outlets. Analysts from think tanks (Atlantic Council, CSIS) and Politico have provided commentary on underlying tensions. Governments’ publicly stated positions and draft communiqués have been cited where available. All perspectives are cited from respected news and policy sources as noted above.
What to Expect — and Not to Expect — at This G7 Summit
The last G7 Summit attended by President Donald Trump ended in controversy, with tensions erupting between Canada and the United States. Trump left early, calling Prime Minister Trudeau “very dishonest and weak.” This time, no one wants a repeat. With the U.S. already grappling with domestic drama, the other G7 leaders — from Europe, Japan, and Canada — are aiming to avoid confrontation. They’ve already absorbed the shock of Trump’s new tariffs and appear more focused on finding pathways forward than picking fights.
Still, anything is possible.
Although China isn’t at the table, it may end up the biggest loser. Behind closed doors, multiple nations are considering coordinated trade moves with the U.S., potentially tightening pressure on Beijing and reshaping global economic alignments.
